Channel SSD Prices Fall Broadly as Aggressive Cuts Weigh on Market

Historically, the Double 11 shopping festival is an important period for 3C sales. However, SSDs, a key component for channel PC systems and DIY builds, have seen sharp price increases since Q4 last year, tracking the rise in upstream resource costs. Although prices turned lower in Q2 due to weak seasonal demand, the cumulative gains from the earlier rally remain substantial, and current price levels are still significantly above those before last year’s increase.Even with platform subsidies and additional promotions during Double 11, many consumers still view SSDs as expensive. Unless purchases are urgent, most users remain reluctant to buy.

In mid-to-late Q3, a few channel memory vendors began cutting prices to secure orders amid performance pressure, but these cases were isolated and did not drag down the broader market. After the National Day holiday, more small vendors joined the price competition, increasing selling pressure in the domestic market. Recently, additional memory vendors have passively followed with lower prices to support shipments. Together with softer resource prices, these factors have led to a notable drop in channel SSD prices this week.As Q4 is the final period for memory vendors to meet annual targets, shipments are expected to become increasingly difficult amid weak demand and intensifying competition, with margin pressure becoming more visible.

On the upstream side, there has been no large-scale dumping of wafers in the trading market, but sentiment has weakened significantly since the National Day holiday. Buyers have become more cautious, and procurement has turned conservative. Some speculators are pressing prices lower to buy cheaply and turn inventory quickly, accelerating the decline in spot wafer prices.

Currently, the trading prices of most 512Gb TLC and 1Tb QLC wafers are more than 30% below original manufacturer official prices. Although official prices remain firm, memory vendors are facing inventory buildup. As the gap between official and spot prices widens, even vendors with limited restocking needs are turning to the more competitive spot market, which also helps reduce overall procurement costs.

While most original manufacturers are still supporting prices by controlling supply, spot wafer prices are increasingly influencing memory vendors’ purchasing decisions. The divergence in price expectations between vendors and original manufacturers is widening. With original manufacturers reluctant to lower official prices, some wafer listings may remain quoted but difficult to transact. To better reflect spot market changes, CFM has slightly lowered its 1Tb QLC and 512Gb TLC wafer prices to $24.00 and $20.00, respectively.

In the DRAM market, domestic secondary DDR particles saw slight softening last week, while overseas original manufacturer particles continued to rise, leading to a divergence in domestic and overseas DDR price trends. Original manufacturer supply remains tight and is expected to tighten further. DDR5 memory modules produced from overseas original manufacturer particles are priced higher, but current levels have already reached the upper limit of what most Asia-Pacific industry customers can accept. Only a few customers with new high-end projects have released limited demand, and price negotiations remain drawn out. European PC customers show higher price tolerance, but solution qualification and adoption will take time.

On the SSD side, design-in resource prices remain high, and some original manufacturers are even considering further increases. With resource costs still elevated, memory vendors are holding prices steady in the short term despite limited demand. As a result, industry memory module and SSD prices remained unchanged this week.

The eMMC market remains fragmented, with supplies ranging from original manufacturer and domestic brand solutions to low-end resources and second-hand products. Product quality varies widely, and quotations are highly inconsistent. As eMMC spot prices continue to fall, the gap between low-priced 64GB eMMC in the trading market and memory vendors’ customer shipment prices has reached nearly $10. Downstream customers are highly sensitive to trading market prices. Some small customers have already shifted to the spot market, while larger customers expect memory vendors to align eMMC pricing with trading market levels, making shipments more difficult. Overall, demand this month has weakened further compared with last month, and actual shipment prices continue to edge lower. Prices for 64GB and below eMMC products were slightly reduced this week.

In the LPDDR segment, overseas original manufacturers continue to raise LPDDR5X prices. Higher-speed 7500 and 8533 MT/s LPDDR5X products are less affected by the second-hand market, so their prices remain relatively stable, and some memory vendors are attempting to raise prices in line with cost increases. However, LPDDR4X and 6400 MT/s LPDDR5X face stronger selling pressure due to competition from low-end resource-based solutions and cheaper second-hand products. Overall, LPDDR4X/5X prices remained broadly stable this week.