The divergence between Memory original manufacturers' Flash Wafer prices and trading prices has lasted for nearly half a year. The price gap for most models of the same specification reaches 10%-20%, and for some 1Tb QLC NAND, the gap exceeds 20%. The inversion of Memory original manufacturers' wafer prices and spot trading prices is becoming increasingly severe. Although downstream memory manufacturers have shown significantly weakened restocking enthusiasm since the second quarter, Memory original manufacturers can still digest part of their capacity and maintain high prices by using small and medium-sized manufacturers and other sales channels as outlets in the short term. However, the low-priced wafers circulating in the spot market are continuously affecting market sentiment and the restocking attitude of memory manufacturers. Once the capacity to absorb supply of downstream links further weakens in the future, the continuous price stabilization of Memory original manufacturers' wafers will also face a test. Recently, affected by the decline in NAND resource prices at the spot trading end, prices for 512Gb TLC and 1Tb QLC have slightly dropped to US$22.00 and US$26.00, respectively.
In contrast, regarding DDR chips, since currently only a few Memory original manufacturers supply a small amount of high-grade DDR5 resources to core strategic customers, the scarcity of supply gives Memory original manufacturers strong pricing power. Moreover, spot market prices for DDR5 chips of the same capacity and grade remain excessively high, so memory manufacturers still choose to continuously procure resources from Memory original manufacturers to replenish their inventory. Meanwhile, prices of some Memory original manufacturers' sub-grade DDR5 chips are still on the rise. This week, prices for DDR5 16Gb and 24Gb Major, as well as DDR5 16Gb eTT, have risen to US$44.00, US$55.00, and US$24.80, respectively.
Driven by the price increases of channel DDR4 resources for several weeks, channel DDR4 UDIMMs, which had turned down since the end of March and then moved sideways for up to two months, have fully rebounded this week. However, since relatively lower prices offered by individual channel manufacturers under heavy performance pressure tend to disrupt the market, the sustainability of the price increase for channel DDR4 UDIMMs still needs to be monitored. As for channel DDR5 UDIMMs, resource price increases in early June first opened the upward channel. With upstream supply remaining tight and certain demand from some complete machine and retail customers serving as a key driver supporting the price rise, prices for channel DDR5 UDIMMs were adjusted upward this week.
Since June, prices of domestic DDR5 sub-grade chips have continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20%. The price gap between overseas and domestic DDR5 sub-grade chips of the same capacity has narrowed significantly. Industry manufacturers continue to appropriately reflect procurement costs in related DDR5 SODIMMs. This week, prices for industry 8GB/16GB DDR5 SODIMMs saw a slight increase. However, the continuously rising prices of DDR5 SODIMMs have further strengthened the resistance from industry customers. When the vast majority of customers can no longer accept such high prices, more customers may turn to lower-grade solutions in the future. Regarding SSDs, although Memory original manufacturers' NAND resource prices have not loosened and production cost pressure remains huge, demand from non-head PC OEMs, industrial control, and other industry customers is sluggish. To promote shipments, industry manufacturers have offered certain price support for some products. This week, prices for industry 256GB/512GB SATA and PCIe 3.0 SSDs were slightly adjusted downward.
As DRAM prices rise quarter by quarter, leading to soaring costs, some server RDIMM demand has shifted from 96GB/128GB DDR5 to 32GB/64GB DDR5. Supply of server 32GB and 64GB DDR5 RDIMMs is tight, and prices continue to rise. This month, the price of 96GB DDR5 RDIMMs remained flat.
Memory original manufacturers have raised LPDDR resource prices multiple times within the last quarter. Although memory manufacturers gradually followed the resource price increases and raised corresponding finished product prices in June, the transmission of cost increases to finished product prices has not been sustainable due to the lack of strong demand support. Recently, this is mainly because some memory manufacturers with large amounts of low-priced inventory have adopted more aggressive pricing. Meanwhile, prices of low-end LP resources have recently declined, and low-end LPDDR solutions are continuously testing the market bottom. Under the influence of multiple factors, products with more circulation in the market are often harder to keep prices stable. This week, prices for 48Gb/64Gb LPDDR4X were slightly adjusted downward.
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