Looking back at July, changes in the memory market primarily centered around price increases for DDR5 secondary-grade dies and LP4X/5X resources, which drove up the prices of related finished products. This was mainly because memory original manufacturers locked in a portion of their resources in advance, causing temporary supply shortages and further tightening supply to memory vendors. Although memory vendors have made certain price adjustments on the finished product side in response, each round of price hikes continues to test the willingness of the demand side to absorb them. With upstream supply unlikely to improve in the coming months and ongoing expectations for further price increases, memory vendors will face intensified cost pressures in the second half of the year.
On the NAND front, since the second quarter, small and fragmented traders have been offloading small batches at lower market prices to free up cash. While trading prices for some specific resources have fluctuated repeatedly, the prices of most wafers have continued to edge downward, further widening the gap with memory original manufacturer wafers. Nevertheless, upstream memory original manufacturers remain firmly committed to stabilizing wafer prices. Conversely, the finished product market has appeared calm on the surface but remains turbulent underneath since July. Prices for certain capacities of embedded eMMC have already begun to soften, with some aggressive memory vendors even securing lower actual transaction prices. For industry SSDs, market visibility is relatively high due to certain stocking needs from PC OEMs in Q3; however, most industry clients are still closely watching the landing prices of original manufacturer PC contracts, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the short term.
Today, Flash wafer prices remained unchanged. On the DDR side, the price of DDR5 16Gb eTT rose by 1.77% to $23, while other products remained flat.
Overall, the channel market has seen little change. Channel vendors are hoping that the August back-to-school season will drive some sales momentum. Although memory price hikes have led to soaring prices for DIY desktops and personal laptops, significantly weakening consumer purchasing power, some channel customers still have rigid restocking needs ahead of the back-to-school season, and memory vendors are striving to secure shipments amid limited demand.
Following multiple rounds of price hikes for secondary-grade DDR5 dies by memory original manufacturers last month, the overall procurement costs for industry vendors have risen further. Currently in the negotiation phase for new Q3 orders, some industry vendors have started raising quotes for overseas PC clients, and a few have already accepted the new pricing. Additionally, after consecutive price increases for domestic D5 secondary-grade dies, the price gap with overseas original manufacturer dies has gradually narrowed. Given the ongoing expectations for further price hikes, the mainland market also plans to attempt price increases, pending market feedback.
Recently, prices for certain LPDDR resources from memory original manufacturers have risen by about 10%. Over the past month, upstream LPDDR4X/5X resource prices have continued to climb, with the average unit price from memory original manufacturers generally reaching as high as $1.7/Gb, and some overseas original manufacturers approaching $2/Gb. Although memory vendors have gradually raised their finished product quotes alongside the resource price hikes, the selling prices for LP4X/5X finished products generally remain between $1.7 and $2.0/Gb based on per-Gb pricing, leading to price inversions for some finished products. While memory vendors face mounting cost pressures, the demand side—especially for large-capacity procurement—remains sluggish. Coupled with a significant amount of low-end LP products still circulating in the market, it is quite challenging for memory vendors to push up prices for LPDDR4X/5X.
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