Institution Forecasts Global Smartphone Shipments to Drop 12.2% YoY in 2026, Yet Market Value to Grow 6.1%

According to Omdia, total global smartphone shipments are forecast to contract by 12.2% year-on-year (YoY) in 2026, dropping to 1,093 million units. This represents a decline of 152 million units compared with 2025. Despite this shipment contraction, total market value is projected to grow by 6.1% YoY over the same period because of a sharp rise in retail pricing. The global smartphone average selling price (ASP) is forecast to increase from $467 in 2025 to $565 in 2026, reflecting severe margin pressures across the supply chain. Omdia forecasts that the global smartphone market contraction will extend into 2027, although the shipment decline is forecast to slow significantly to 0.9%. Even as memory prices are projected to begin correcting in 2027, the baseline cost of manufacturing sub-$100 smartphones is expected to remain too high to support significant decreases in end-user pricing. Meaningful volume recovery for the industry is therefore expected to begin in 2028.