Goldkey Tech: Memory Shortages May Continue Until 2028; Q3 Prices to Rise Further with NAND Outpacing DRAM

According to Taiwanese media reports, Vicky Tseng, Chairperson of Goldkey Technology, stated that AI servers are driving a surge in memory demand, with each AI server requiring approximately eight times the memory capacity of a traditional server. Moreover, three major memory suppliers continue to prioritize production capacity for HBM, squeezing the supply of DDR4 and DDR5. The industry has entered a new supercycle, with shortages potentially lasting until 2028. Currently, market order visibility has extended to 2028 while some customers have even begun negotiating supply plans for 2029–2030 with the manufacturers. Zeng Wanquan, Vice General Manager, added that suppliers are still prioritizing CSPs and large data centers, leaving the enterprise market supply tight. Based on current market supply and demand conditions, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise another 30% in the third quarter, while NAND Flash prices could increase by as much as 60% to 70%.