Although the risk of a large-scale strike at Samsung last week was temporarily resolved, disagreements remain within the union regarding the wage proposal in the last-minute tentative agreement reached before the strike. It remains unclear whether this agreement will ultimately be implemented. Meanwhile, Micron recently announced the restart of its 1α process DDR4/LPDDR4 production line at its US factory, mainly targeting long-lifecycle industry customers in automotive, defense, aerospace, and other fields, and does not cover data center or consumer application markets. As a result, the supply shortage of such DDR4 products will not be significantly alleviated. Driven by multiple market news, the spot market saw trading prices of certain high-grade DRAM chips rise slightly, driven by sentiment.
However, since the second half of last year, upstream DRAM supply has tightened sharply. The supply from original manufacturers to downstream memory module makers has been largely stagnant. Even if a few manufacturers manage to obtain very limited supply at unit prices exceeding $2, such costs far exceed the affordable threshold for PC DRAM finished products and cannot be used for regular PC memory production. As a result, memory module makers have gradually turned to using secondary-grade resources for production. Since the second quarter of this year, industry customers have been cautious in inventory preparation, and with numerous secondary-grade resource solutions available, intensified low-price competition among manufacturers has further disrupted the market and made shipments more difficult. This week, the price decline for industry-grade DDR4 memory modules has further expanded compared to last week. In addition, domestic upstream LPDDR resource prices have been gradually declining month by month since March, lowering procurement costs for some memory module makers and giving them more flexibility in product pricing. Combined with aggressive quotations from certain low-grade LP solutions that disrupted the market, prices of 32Gb and 48Gb LP4X/5X products saw slight declines this week.
Specifically,
Since the second quarter, although industry customers have been continuously digesting inventories while also having phased restocking needs, their procurement has generally remained conservative and cautious, with a preference for consuming remaining inventories first. Actual sales of industry-grade memory module makers have decreased significantly compared to the first quarter, and shipments have faced clear pressure. This week, the price declines for industry-grade 8GB and 16GB DDR4 SODIMM have further widened compared to last week, dropping by 12.50% and 8.82% respectively.
Recently, domestic upstream LPDDR wafers and chip resources have been in a state of continuous, moderate decline. Some memory module makers have sold low-grade LP resource solutions at low prices, causing some disruption to the market. This week, prices of 32Gb and 48Gb LP4X/5X products fell slightly, while low-density LP products such as 16Gb remained relatively firm due to limited resources and fewer alternative solutions compared to high-density products. On the embedded NAND front, most second-quarter orders have been finalized, and current focus is primarily on delivery. Although some manufacturers have recently offered even lower quotations, most memory module makers adhere to a stable pricing system. However, as the third quarter approaches, once customers' price expectations decline, price negotiations for the new quarter will become even more challenging.
Due to a sharp drop in prices of low-end resources for UDIMM combined with weak demand, prices of DDR4/DDR5 UDIMM products have fallen by more than 20% cumulatively over nearly two months since mid-to-late March. In particular, prices of low-density DDR4 UDIMMs such as 8GB and 16GB have dropped nearly 40%. After more than a month of continuous decline, recent spot market trading has seen frequent bargain-hunting activities, and prices of low-end DDR UDIMM resources have begun to stabilize and rebound. A few channel makers have tested modest price increases on certain DDR UDIMM. Additionally, in the second quarter, SSD shipments of channel makers have generally been unsatisfactory. As we are now in the middle-to-late stage of the quarter, channel makers facing performance pressure may further lower prices to stimulate shipments.
On the upstream resource front, prices of Flash wafers, DDR4, and DDR5 have remained largely stable.
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