In the first half of this year, the memory spot market maintained a strong upward trend from January to late March. However, since the end of March, the market has exhibited a distinct structural divergence. Driven by unstable upstream supply, the procurement cost of mainstream QLC resources breaking through $0.20/GB, and strong demand support from core customers such as PC OEMs, industry SSD prices have maintained a steady upward trajectory. Conversely, DDR5 UDIMM and embedded LP4X/LP5X saw price declines due to weak demand, falling resource prices, and aggressive price competition among peers. However, starting in mid-June, driven by rising resource costs and tightening supply, their prices began to bottom out and rebound. In contrast, channel SSDs and DDR4 UDIMM bars have continued to drop in price due to the continuous impact of low-end resources and sluggish market buying sentiment, with Q2 cumulative declines reaching approximately 20% and 40%, respectively.
From the perspective of the contract market, it is expected that in Q3, memory original manufacturers will maintain double-digit price growth for most NAND and DRAM products across server, mobile, and PC markets. This will provide a driving effect on spot market products such as industry SSDs. With the ongoing tight supply of mainstream resources and high cost pressures, industry SSD prices are expected to have room for further price increases in Q3. If resource prices continue to rise and supply tightens, industry/channel DDR5 and embedded LP4X/5X prices may follow suit. However, given the lack of improvement in actual demand and the priority of some memory manufacturers to focus on securing orders, channel SSD and DDR4 UDIMM bar prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term.
Detailed Analysis:
Looking back at Q2, demand for channel SSDs and DDR4 UDIMM bars continued to weaken, with cumulative SSD declines generally exceeding 20% and DDR declines nearing 40%. This was primarily due to high inventory levels among channel customers, resulting in few inquiries outside of rigid replenishment needs. Even lowered quotes failed to stimulate demand. In particular, the continued sluggishness in traditional DIY PC building demand has made retail channel shipments even more difficult. Meanwhile, the market demand for DDR5 UDIMM bars was stronger than that for DDR4. Less affected by low-end resources and facing relatively tight upstream supply, DDR5 prices began to rebound in June. The channel market has clearly bifurcated. Heading into Q3, ahead of the back-to-school peak season, channel SSD and DDR4 UDIMM bar prices are unlikely to stabilize, as some channel manufacturers with disappointing Q2 performance prioritize order fulfillment over holding prices.
Since Q4 of last year, memory original manufacturers have generally shifted their core strategic resources toward the server market, resulting in lower supply support for some PC OEMs. PC OEMs facing supply gaps have turned to domestic industry memory manufacturers. Although top-tier PC manufacturers have stronger bargaining power due to their scale, they face continuous and substantial price hikes from original manufacturers. With cSSD NAND unit prices reaching as high as $0.30/GB, the severe cost pressure has led to a significant trend of capacity reduction in products; for example, entry-level models have downgraded from 512GB SSDs to 256GB. Since original manufacturers primarily supply capacities of 512GB and above, industry manufacturers hold greater pricing power at the 256GB capacity point, driving a steady price increase for industry SSDs in Q2. Additionally, the average selling price of mainstream QLC resources in Q2 was as high as $0.20/GB. With supply expected to tighten in the second half of the year, production costs will remain high. Meanwhile, original manufacturers are expected to raise cSSD contract prices for PCs by 15%-25% in Q3, further driving up industry SSD prices, which are expected to maintain upward momentum in Q3.
For LPDDR4X, product prices began to weaken in May due to slightly declining resource prices and aggressive low-price shipments by peers. However, starting in mid-June, LPDDR resource prices bottomed out and rebounded, driving up LP4X/5X product prices. On the demand side, overseas customers have relatively strong demand for low-capacity LPDDR products, while domestic market buying sentiment remains tepid. More importantly, some terminal customers have recently locked in LPDDR resource supplies directly with original manufacturers. This may further reduce the available resources from original manufacturers, driving up prices. As memory manufacturers face rising procurement costs, LP4X/5X product prices are likely to be adjusted upward accordingly.
On the upstream resources front, Flash Wafer and DRAM resource prices remained unchanged.
All Rights Reserved © 2026 MemoryMarket.com
