【CFM Research】Memory Prices to Rise Further in the Second Half of the Year

CFM recently released its Memory Market Outlook Report for the third quarter of 2026. The report indicates that in Q3 2026, the quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) price increases for server DDR5 and eSSD are expected to fall within the ranges of 10%–20% and 25%–30%, respectively. For the mobile sector, LPDDR4X/5X and eMMC/UFS prices are projected to rise by approximately 5%–15% and 15%–25%, respectively. In the PC segment, DDR5/LPDDR5X prices are expected to increase by around 13%–18%, while cSSD prices are forecasted to grow by 15%–25%.

CFM Flash Market QoQ Price Forecast for 2026:

Source: CFM
Note: Actual outcomes may vary. Due to differing baseline prices set by individual suppliers, the final price adjustments may differ.

Server Market

In the first quarter of this year, most original memory manufacturers shifted production lines from mobile NAND and DRAM (following order cuts by smartphone clients) to the server market. However, during the first half of the year, original memory manufacturers prioritized supply for North American server customers to improve their fulfillment rates. In the second half of the year, benefiting from the gradual realization of capacity transferred in Q1, coupled with new capacity released through process node upgrades, original memory manufacturers will moderately increase supply quotas for domestic internet companies. While domestic memory supply will improve compared to the first half of the year, the server market will remain seller-driven. It is expected that server memory prices will maintain double-digit percentage increases in Q3, transmitting upward pressure to other markets.

Specifically, server DDR5 prices are projected to rise by 10%–20%. As the average selling price (ASP) of all eSSD capacities is expected to fully surpass $0.40/GB in Q3, the contract price increase for eSSD is projected to be higher than that of RDIMMs. Long-term contract customers have locked in partial capacity and price floors/ceilings, whereas non-contract customers will face spot-market-driven price hikes. Overall, server memory prices are expected to see a widespread double-digit percentage increase in Q3.

Mobile Market

To mitigate the risks of potential massive order cuts by smartphone clients and delays in production line adjustments, some original memory manufacturers proactively offered price support in Q1 to encourage customers to adjust their annual procurement expectations. In Q1, domestic Android brands implemented order cuts of approximately 10%–20% for mobile NAND/DRAM, prompting most original memory manufacturers to redirect capacity to the server market. After two consecutive quarters of significant price hikes, original memory manufacturers drove embedded memory prices up by over 70% in Q2, with some prices nearly doubling. Given that memory typically accounts for 50%–70% of a smartphone's bill of materials (BOM) cost, assuming a 70% BOM proportion, memory costs for smartphones priced at $800 and below have exceeded 40% in Q2. For high-capacity variants (e.g., 12GB+1TB or 16GB+1TB) of $500 models, memory costs have even surpassed the total BOM cost. This has forced manufacturers of high-capacity models to adopt more aggressive price hikes, making it exceedingly difficult to sustain Q2's high mobile memory prices. However, as original memory manufacturers have negotiated partial pricing strategies with overseas terminal manufacturers, the QoQ price increase for embedded memory supplied to core domestic strategic customers will moderate in Q3 to encourage Tier-1 smartphone manufacturers to take delivery. Nevertheless, if smartphone terminals wish to secure additional supply, they will need to pay a higher price premium to capture extra capacity from the server market. Consequently, Q3 mobile DRAM and NAND prices are expected to rise by approximately 5%–15% and 15%–25%, respectively.

PC Market

Since the fourth quarter of last year, original memory manufacturers have consistently executed a capacity allocation strategy, prioritizing supply for servers. Driven by the continuous surge in AI computing demand, the server market has created a strong "capacity siphoning effect," drawing massive resources toward the server segment. This has led to a continuous contraction in PC memory supply. In particular, general-purpose DDR5 faces direct capacity conflicts with server memory, and LPDDR5X for ultrabooks remains in severe shortage due to the sharp rise in server CPU demand.

In Q2, the ASP of server DRAM fully exceeded $2/Gb, while PC DDR5/LPDDR5X was priced at approximately $1.5/Gb. Given this significant price spread, original memory manufacturers are more inclined to supply higher-premium server customers. With limited bargaining power, PC manufacturers will have to accept price increases aligned with server memory to prevent the price gap from widening further. As a result, Q3 PC LPDDR5X/DDR5 and cSSD prices are projected to increase by approximately 13%–18% and 15%–25%, respectively.