26Q4 DDR5 RDIMM contract prices rise 10%–15%; CFM raises November DDR5 quotes

Server DDR5 RDIMM prices from major memory suppliers remain on an upward trend in the fourth quarter. The gap between long-term agreement (LTA) and non-LTA prices has widened further. LTA customers have locked in price caps to control memory costs and secure stable deliveries, while suppliers are allocating additional supply to non-LTA customers at higher prices. DDR5 RDIMM contract prices have generally risen by 10% to 15%, with the average selling price (ASP) of high-capacity RDIMMs exceeding $3/Gb. CFM has raised its November prices for 32GB/64GB/96GB DDR5 RDIMMs to $1,030/$1,800/$3,025.

Affected by macro uncertainties such as the U.S. midterm elections, short-term spot market sentiment has shifted from active buying to cautious observation, reducing trading activity. The spot market has amplified short-term factors, with 64GB DDR5 RDIMM spot prices edging lower from recent highs, further narrowing the gap between Q4 contract and spot prices.

As the final quarter of the year, Q4 typically sees a new wave of pre-stocking ahead of Double 11, overseas Black Friday, and Christmas. However, since October, the memory spot market has been weighed down by weak demand. This week, prices for 64GB and below eMMC products continued to decline, while other finished memory products remained largely stable. Some channel vendors, under performance pressure, have aggressively cut prices to win orders; whether more vendors follow remains to be seen, and channel SSD shipments may face further pressure amid competitive pricing.

In the channel market, eMMC trading prices have fallen continuously, with low-priced supply flooding the market. Only a few traders are accepting small batches. Even though eMMC trading prices are at their lowest levels this year, they have failed to attract more buyers. With sluggish demand for embedded eMMC and a scarcity of large orders, customers have set stringent target prices amid limited inquiries, mostly for small lots. Memory vendors have therefore continued to lower prices slightly, with 64GB and below eMMC products seeing modest reductions this week. If some end customers release large orders in the future, certain vendors may offer even lower prices to close deals. Additionally, the channel market is seeing a significant volume of eMMC products made from low-end downgraded or second-hand unconventional materials, with recent reports of quality issues warranting attention.

Today, Flash Wafer, DDR4, and DDR5 chip prices remained flat.

Despite some channel vendors continuing to offer low prices, overall market demand remains weak. With Q4 nearly halfway through, most channel vendors are focused on accelerating shipments to meet annual targets. Low-end downgraded materials are inexpensive, giving SSD products based on such materials lower costs and greater room for price concessions. If some vendors use deeper discounts to stimulate demand and others are forced to follow, channel SSD selling prices could be dragged lower by competitive pressure in the coming period.

Since Q2, driven by higher-priced DDR5 secondary-grade chips, rising resource costs have gradually been reflected in corresponding memory module finished products. Although industry DDR5 SODIMM prices are generally at high levels, upstream supply remains tight. Since November, suppliers have not released additional supply to downstream memory module makers, keeping DDR5 module prices relatively stable. On the SSD side, although enterprise customer stocking has nearly stalled, there has been no large-scale shift to price-for-volume strategies, and overall enterprise SSD prices have changed little.