CFM: Memory Manufacturer Raise DDR5 Price Expectations Again, with Further Expansion in Price Increases

Based on current dynamics in the memory market, original DRAM manufacturer continue to maintain a broadly strong upward pricing trend in the second quarter, while further raising their expectations for quarterly price increases. The spot market has promptly reflected increased demand for medium- and low-capacity RDIMMs, with spot prices for 32GB D4/D5 RDIMMs rising firmly. Meanwhile, prices for 64GB/96GB D5 have seen slight declines and are now moving sideways, indicating a divergence between spot market trends and contract market trends.

On one hand, original manufacturers have further revised upward their expectations for DDR5 price increases. Temporary shipment prices are now about 10%–15% higher than in early April, with quarterly increases reaching 40% to 50% on a sequential basis. This reflects persistently tight upstream supply and the original makers' strong pricing power, with the overall market still characterized by an imbalance between supply and demand. On the other hand, due to considerations for initial server bring-up and cost control, downstream applications in China have adopted a more pragmatic procurement strategy, significantly increasing demand for medium- and low-capacity products such as 32GB. This has driven slight price increases for 32GB D5 and D4 in the spot market, while spot prices for 64GB and 96GB D5 have corrected and entered a sideways phase.

Overall, although the spot market has shown divergence in the short term due to adjustments in demand structure, the server DRAM market continues to operate strongly against the backdrop of persistent price hikes by original makers and tight supply. The original makers' price benchmark is expected to continue shifting upward in the second quarter.