Nanya Technology: Capacity Surges Nearly 70%, DRAM Shortage Seen Lasting Through 2028

Structural Shifts Reshape the Memory Landscape, with Structural DRAM Undersupply Set to Persist through 2028

From a medium-to-long-term industry development perspective, the supply–demand structure of the memory industry has undergone a fundamental shift. Nanya Technology forecasts that the global DRAM market will remain in a tight supply–demand balance through 2028. The core driver is the rapid advancement of the AI industry, with next-generation AI accelerator computing platforms such as Rubin Ultra and TPU iteratively upgrading and featuring double the HBM capacity per unit compared to previous generations, directly fueling explosive growth in HBM bit demand. At the same time, the ongoing expansion of HBM capacity will continue to crowd out traditional DRAM capacity supply, further tightening the global DRAM supply–demand gap.

Industry-Leading Capacity Expansion Poised to Drive Surge in Bit Shipments

Against the broader trend of supply chain diversification and resilience in the global memory industry, Nanya Technology's competitive advantages and strategic value continue to grow. In terms of capacity deployment, the company is expanding at an industry-leading pace, with total capacity expected to increase by approximately 69% from 2026 to 2028, making it one of the major global memory manufacturers with the most aggressive expansion plans. Its new 5A fab will add about 45,000 wafers in new capacity, and will subsequently introduce 1C and 1D nm advanced process nodes to effectively improve bit output per wafer, providing a solid capacity foundation to support sustained shipment growth in the future.

Leveraging the dual benefits of capacity expansion and process node upgrades, Nanya Technology's shipments are set to achieve leapfrog growth over the next two years. Its bit shipments are expected to grow 8.0% year-over-year to 6.75 billion Gb in 2027, and then surge 53.1% year-over-year to exceed 10.33 billion Gb in 2028, demonstrating strong growth momentum.

Price Hike Continues, with Further Upside for Q3 ASP

Nanya Technology indicated that there remains room for additional profit growth going forward. The average price per Gb in the second quarter has not yet fully reflected the benefits of contract price increases, and there is a timing lag in contract renewals with major long-term customers, meaning the full benefits of the industry-wide price hikes have not yet been realized. Accordingly, Nanya Technology expects there is still room for upward revision in its Q3 ASP, which is likely to continue driving the company's performance growth and serve as a core driver of profitability improvement in the second half of the year.