CFM anticipates that the upward momentum for Q4 consumer-grade NAND Flash and SSD contract prices has largely exhausted. This is primarily driven by weak end-user demand undermining downstream acceptance, coupled with the accelerated adoption of QLC SSDs. In the short term, the structural contradiction between persistently high upstream costs and sluggish downstream demand is difficult to resolve quickly, leaving spot prices for embedded memory under continued downward pressure. Against this backdrop, some memory original manufacturers plan to flexibly adjust NAND Flash capacity deployment to achieve a dynamic balance of industry supply and demand.
The continuous rise in memory prices has significantly increased the Bill of Materials (BOM) costs for smartphone manufacturers. For the highly price-sensitive mid-to-low-end smartphone market, elevated memory costs have directly pushed up end-product prices, substantially suppressing consumers' willingness to upgrade existing devices or purchase new ones. To offset cost pressures, some smartphone manufacturers have been forced to adopt cost-control measures such as streamlining product lines, downgrading memory configurations, and raising overall device prices, which further dampens demand for consumer-grade memory.
In the spot market, since July, eMMC products from multiple brands have seen continuous low-price liquidations. Trade prices across all capacity segments are generally lower than official brand prices, resulting in a significant price inversion between spot and contract prices, with the spot price of 64GB eMMC leading the downward trend. If channel distributors continue to dump inventory at low prices to raise cash, it will disrupt the shipment schedules and pricing systems of memory original manufacturers.
In the PC market, the cost optimization brought by the mass production of new-generation QLC NAND is driving the accelerated replacement of high-capacity TLC SSDs with QLC SSDs. This transition not only effectively alleviates the upward cost pressure on high-capacity SSDs but also suppresses the overall increase in SSD contract prices.
Furthermore, current PC industry demand is heavily reliant on orders from leading brands. Small and medium-sized PC manufacturers have weak bargaining power and cannot smoothly pass cost increases down to end-users. Their cost-bearing capacity is nearing its threshold, leaving them with limited acceptance of persistently high procurement prices. At this stage, PC manufacturers' stocking behaviors are largely driven by the digestion of multi-channel inventory rather than genuine end-user demand. If actual PC sales in the second half of the year fall short of expectations and channel inventory continues to accumulate, PC manufacturers may slow down their subsequent stocking pace.
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